Meanwhile, according to one analyst, the Coalition’s game should not have skipped the PlayStation 5, despite the fact that the reviews on Steam have been pretty good so far.

According to Eurogamer, the developers at The Coalition fear that Xbox will carry out layoffs soon after the release of Gears of War: Day Wave (already available to Premium Edition owners; the official release date is October 6). Over the summer, the studio was largely spared from Microsoft’s massive round of layoffs. The internal mood was one of cautious optimism, as employees believed that Microsoft still had faith in the studio’s long-term future. However, that mood changed abruptly this month.

Last week, Juan Vaca, the story director for Gears of War: E-Day, announced that he had been laid off as part of Microsoft’s second round of layoffs, just two weeks before the game’s release, as previously reported. A source who spoke with Kotaku claimed that several other developers were laid off shortly before for reasons unrelated to the broader layoffs at Xbox. Multiple sources told Eurogamer that additional employees were quietly laid off in recent weeks. One developer described Vaca’s departure as demoralizing and said the team is on edge. Employees had expected staff cuts after the game’s release but are now bracing for the next wave and for The Coalition to be moved under Activision’s umbrella later this year.

Given that Xbox recently placed the Halo franchise, Rare, and World’s Edge under Activision’s umbrella, this fear is hardly unfounded. The latest round of layoffs has also raised a more specific concern: money. Like many other studios, The Coalition offers a Metacritic bonus tied to the critical reception of Gears of War: E-Day. Eurogamer confirmed this via an internal email. The terms are standard, but one condition raises serious concerns: developers must be full-time employees at the time of payment, which management says will occur toward the end of October.

Employees like Vaca who were recently laid off but remain on the payroll will still receive their bonuses if the game meets its targets, even though team members had previously assumed they would not receive them. It remains unclear what would happen to current developers if they were laid off immediately after the release of Gears of War: E-Day but before the bonuses are paid out. According to Eurogamer’s sources, the prospect of being laid off right before the bonus is paid out has become a dark joke among the team. Understandably, this possibility is now their greatest concern. Some developers fear that Microsoft might try to sweep the payment under the rug. As one source put it, it’s already hard to believe anything Microsoft’s leadership says.

Given that hundreds more layoffs are planned by the end of the fiscal year as part of the Xbox restructuring, these fears may be well-founded. Perhaps the game’s commercial performance will be the deciding factor. However, we can only speculate because Xbox stopped reporting unit sales a long time ago and now focuses on player numbers, which are inflated by Xbox Game Pass. However, sales of recent Xbox titles haven’t been particularly impressive. The only series that has consistently delivered excellent results is Forza. Rhys Elliott, an analyst at Alinea Analytics, revealed the projected sales figures for Gears of War: Day Wave and noted that the game might not sell more than 1 million copies on Steam this year.

Gears of War: E-Day has sold 120K copies on Steam for nearly $7M (@alineaanalytics estimates)

It’s sold under 20K in the last six weeks despite launching this week in early access, so the pre-launch curve is soft (but it’s increasing a bit).

Gears is a far more niche IP than… pic.twitter.com/mDKvPIZWYX

— Rhys Elliott (@superhys) September 29, 2026

Unlike Call of Duty, he believes the franchise isn’t among the most popular. He believes the game should have been released on the PlayStation 5 as well since it would have generated much-needed revenue for that platform. Since most people already own a Sony console, they would have likely been interested in it. Furthermore, a large portion of Xbox’s revenue will be eaten up by Game Pass, so realistically, sales won’t be nearly as high. Elliott also believes that a PlayStation 5 port of the game could be released at a later date.

Gears of War: E-Day has received more praise than most people expected. Early reviews have named it one of the year’s highest-rated games, marking a much-needed success for Xbox following its return to exclusivity. Positive word of mouth surrounding the game has also contributed to a surge in sales. It is currently the fourth best-selling game on Steam. Interestingly, the title jumped up the rankings today, largely thanks to the positive buzz following the critics’ reviews. It currently trails behind free-to-play titles such as Counter-Strike 2 and recent hits like Ace Combat 8: Wings of Theve. It’s worth noting that Gears of War: E-Day will likely enjoy great popularity on Xbox Game Pass as well.

It will be interesting to see how the game performs once it officially becomes available to all players on October 6.

Source: WCCFTech, Eurogamer, Steam, Tech4gamers, Tech4gamers