Analysts say that the days of games industry growth in 2020 and 2021 (mainly due to the pandemic) are over and that other scenarios need to be prepared for.

The games industry will grow by 26.3% in 2020 and 9.8% in 2021. Last year this rate was reversed and showed a decline of around 5% as people turned to other hobbies. This year we can expect to see growth again, but developers and publishers need to prepare for lower rates. MIDiA Research’s gaming industry forecast covers the period 2023 to 2030, and its title is telling (Life post-peak). WCCFTech had a look at the document.

The analyst firm says it expects growth to be below the current rate of inflation, so it will be less than 10% by the end of the decade (so it doesn’t expect more than that even in 2030). But the number of gamers will grow (and this supports Xbox boss Phil Spencer’s expectation of 3 billion), as they expect 3.8 billion by 2030. Smaller studios are encouraged to sign up to subscription services (Xbox Game Pass, PlayStation Plus Extra/Premium).

“For developers, especially the smaller and mid-sized ones, who are on the fence about joining a subscription offering, the advice is to join now rather than later. Subscriptions are going to grow, and the more titles (developers) that are part of them, the less bargaining power future developers are likely to get. The one exception may be highly differentiated (and hard to replicate) premium niche games with loyal, resilient and high-spending user bases. The best of these are likely to attract attractive acquisition or investment offers in the coming years as subscription services and publishers seek to optimise and differentiate their offerings. While the rise of subscription services to access games is a headwind for full game purchases, we still expect individual game purchases to be a large part of the industry, growing slightly through 2030,” write Karol Severin (MIDiA’s lead games analyst) and Perry Gresham (forecasting analyst).

So the situation isn’t going to get any better.

Source: WCCFTech