An internal calculation may have been leaked, which is probably why the Redmond-based company started raising prices this week to the point of absurdity.

Based on interviews with former Microsoft employees, Bloomberg fueled speculation about the future of Xbox Game Pass, including Microsoft’s estimate of the cost of adding Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 to the subscription service. Unlike Steam, which offers real-time metrics and is monitored by external sites such as SteamDB, Game Pass is a black box. Only Microsoft’s periodic updates or internal information obtained by Bloomberg provide insight into the state of the service.

Microsoft claims the service is growing and popular; however, Xbox has struggled with continuous mass layoffs and studio closures in recent years. One employee who spoke with Bloomberg mentioned an internal estimate of $300 million. This figure was never intended to be made public, yet it casts a negative light on the company’s flagship project. The estimate was intended to be as accurate as possible at the time it was made. We don’t know how Microsoft arrived at this figure, but it was presumably the result of fairly sophisticated forecasting.

Based on some quick calculations, Kotaku determined that, before the price increase, Game Pass would have needed 15 million new Ultimate subscribers in a month or 1.25 million in a year to make up for the lost sales of Black Ops 6. Game Pass had 34 million subscribers in 2024, but there is no data available for 2025. Between these two extremes, there is a kaleidoscope of prices and subscription lengths, all of which match the revenue that Microsoft could theoretically achieve through normal sales of the game. Presumably, the publisher wants its gaming business to generate stronger revenue than the old model.

Despite this, IGN reported that Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 broke sales records in the franchise’s history and set a new record for the most new Game Pass subscriptions in a single day when it was released. However, Bloomberg pointed out that 82% of Black Ops 6‘s full-price sales were on the PlayStation 5, despite this being the first Call of Duty release under Microsoft.

Source: PCGamer, Bloomberg, Kotaku, Microsoft, IGN