This suggests that Housemarque’s PlayStation 5 exclusive may not be in such a strong position after all.
Alinea Analytics has appeared in the news numerous times in recent years. The data analysis firm predicts sales thresholds for new games based on well-founded estimates. In the absence of concrete data, especially in North America, Alinea Analytics has been cited countless times as the best source available to the public. Jeff Grubb, a renowned industry analyst and gaming insider, acknowledges that Alinea is far from perfect but firmly asserts that it is better than the alternatives. This sheds an even gloomier light on Alinea’s report, which stated that Saros’s sales figures were low at launch (we’ve written about this previously).
In the latest episode of the Giant Bomb Game Mess Mornings podcast, Grubb addressed reports that Saros sold only about 300,000 copies in two weeks. According to Alinea, Saros had a budget of approximately $76 million (Grubb himself admits that this is only an estimate), so selling 300,000 copies would generate about $22 million in revenue for Sony. Given that AAA games generally achieve their best results in the first few weeks after release, it’s likely that Saros will never recoup its development costs.
It’s also unclear whether the $76 million estimate included marketing costs, but it’s likely that it didn’t. Regarding Alinea Analytics’ results to date, Grubb said: “I’ve always pointed out that, when I talk to people in the industry, they say Alinea is pretty good at these estimates. It’s never perfect. But they are usually closer than just about anybody else.”
This doesn’t mean that Alinea won’t occasionally miss the mark. Unless you have insider information, we’re all groping in the dark. Still, this is a significant point in Alinea’s favor. It prompts us to review the company’s past professional predictions. And that doesn’t bode well for Saros. Hopefully, Housemarque’s excellent action game will turn things around in the future.
Source: TheGamer
