MOVIE NEWS – The release of Avatar: Fire and Ash has once again sparked debate about where the franchise is headed, but James Cameron believes it is far too soon to draw any firm conclusions. While the film did not shatter opening weekend records, its global performance remains impressive. The director has previously made it clear that the fate of Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 depends entirely on box office results.

Every time a new Avatar film arrives, the same two arguments resurface. One is the claim that the series lacks cultural impact, an idea that has been disproven time and again. The other focuses on box office performance. Although the Avatar films rarely follow traditional box office patterns, early headlines often frame their strong but not record-breaking openings as failures, only to be contradicted by their long-term success.

Avatar: Fire and Ash has followed that familiar pattern. Its $89 million opening weekend was quickly labeled a drop-off by some observers, especially since Cameron has stated that the already announced Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 will only move forward if the current installment earns enough. The real question is whether this performance is already sufficient or if it is simply too early to judge.

The film reportedly cost around $350 million to produce, with an additional $150 million spent on marketing. While global earnings have already passed $500 million, not all of that revenue flows directly back to the studio, as theaters and international markets take their share. Beyond ticket sales, however, the Avatar brand generates value through merchandise, licensing deals, and theme park attractions. Disney’s long-term investment is evident in Pandora at Disney’s Animal Kingdom and the planned expansions tied to the franchise.

Reaching $760 million worldwide in just ten days is an encouraging sign for Avatar: Fire and Ash. The film is performing particularly well overseas and currently ranks as the sixth-highest-grossing release of the year. It is expected to surpass Jurassic World: Rebirth soon and appears likely to cross the $1 billion mark. The bigger question is whether it can replicate its predecessor’s $2 billion achievement.

To do so, it would need to overtake this year’s top earner, Ne Zha II, which stands at $2.15 billion. If any 2025 release has a chance to challenge that total, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash. Even if it ultimately settles in the high $1 billion range, that outcome would still be considered a major win for the franchise.

It is far too early to judge Avatar’s fate

The original Avatar eventually became the highest-grossing film of all time, but few would have predicted that outcome just two weeks after its release. At that point, it trailed behind titles such as The Twilight Saga: New Moon, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. A similar situation applies today. After ten days, Avatar: Fire and Ash has earned $217 million domestically, slightly ahead of the first Avatar at the same point in 2009.

If Avatar: Fire and Ash can maintain the top box office position for seven consecutive weeks, as both Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water did, that would all but guarantee the production of Avatar 4 and Avatar 5. With limited competition in January, the film has a strong chance of dominating theaters for weeks.

Even if it fails to reach the heights of its predecessors, Avatar: Fire and Ash is still poised to earn enormous sums and could become Disney’s most successful film of 2025. That would be particularly notable given that Lilo & Stitch and Zootopia 2 have already crossed the $1 billion threshold.

Ultimately, the future of the franchise rests with James Cameron. Whether he chooses to spend another six or seven years expanding the world of Pandora, or shifts his focus to projects like his planned Ghost of Hiroshima adaptation or a new Terminator script, will determine what comes next. He could even pass directing duties to another filmmaker while remaining closely involved as a producer.

Source: MovieWeb