Rockstar Games and Take-Two will certainly rake in billions from the game, but the question is just how much.

In June, Piper Sandler released an initial forecasting model that analyzed traffic on the subreddit during the release of about 15 major games. Based on this analysis, the firm estimated that Grand Theft Auto VI would sell over 45 million copies at launch. This week, analyst James Callahan released a new analysis that raises the already substantial sales forecast even further. The number of weekly visitors to r/GTA6 has nearly quadrupled since mid-August and grew in three stages. The number of weekly active users doubled from around 700,000 to 1.4 million after content was leaked at the end of August. The Extended Look increased this figure to 2.0 million, and it has risen an additional 35% to 2.7 million in the week since then.

Piper Sandler’s updated model provides two estimates that converge. If we apply a 16x multiple to the projected three million weekly active users at launch, we get 48 million copies. If we apply an 18x multiple to today’s 2.7 million, we get 48.6 million. This brings the average to 48.3 million. To arrive at 48 million, the analyst reduced the multiplier by more than half compared to the previous analysis, lowering it from 35.5 times in June to 16 times now. This is clearly a conservative move; stronger-than-expected traffic on the subreddits means the multiplier can be lowered, yet the original 45 million threshold can still be comfortably exceeded. The report notes that a 16x multiplier would place Grand Theft Auto VI among the bottom five games in the sample set in terms of multiplier efficiency yet would still result in an impressive 48 million copies sold.

Piper’s official estimate is approximately 30 million copies. Meanwhile, the figure cited in the analysis as the investor consensus is about 40 million copies. Thus, according to the analyst’s calculations, the 48 million figure deviates upward from both estimates. Callahan also notes that user activity data on Reddit is more positive than that shown by some external pre-order tracking services since the release of the trailer. Obviously, this estimate should be treated with caution.

The most interesting observation concerns two short scenes in the Extended Look: Lucia’s bench press and a sequence set at a shooting range. Callahan interprets these scenes as meaning that player statistics will play a greater role in gameplay than in the last two installments of the series. According to Callahan, Rockstar may introduce microtransactions that allow players to use virtual currency to speed up their progression, which is not typical of the series’ single-player mode. Currently, this is merely analyst speculation, as Rockstar has not made any statements on the matter. From the players’ perspective, there is no cause for concern, but considering the revenue model of NBA 2K, this line of thinking is not entirely implausible.

Ampere Analysis corroborated the results of the Netflix premiere with numbers, offering a more detailed picture of the 31.1 million views the Extended Look achieved. The six-hour exclusivity period on Netflix on August 27 resulted in over 100,000 new sign-ups, marking the streaming platform’s third-highest subscriber acquisition peak of 2026. Only the final episode of Stranger Things and the Rousey–Carano MMA match generated more. However, the Grand Theft Auto VI trailer outperformed nearly every live sporting event that Netflix has streamed this year. The reactivation data, however, is arguably even more impressive. According to data from PlumResearch analyzed by Ampere, over the past 30 days, more than 5% of U.S. Netflix users who hadn’t watched anything on the service returned specifically to watch the Extended Look—a higher percentage than for any other series or movie on the platform during that period.

According to Katie Holt, a senior research analyst at Ampere, Netflix cannot compete directly with the biggest gaming franchises but can compete for their audience’s attention (through trailers, announcements, and adaptations). This allows Netflix to gain a foothold in gaming culture without owning any games. This could be Netflix’s future strategy, given that it has sold off nearly all of its previous investments in game studios, including the recently closed Night School Studio, creators of Oxenfree. Ampere notes that 49% of Netflix subscribers are male, compared to 72% of the franchise’s existing fan base. They argue that expanding beyond its core gaming audience is essential for Grand Theft Auto VI to surpass the high bar set by the previous installment.

Read in conjunction with Piper’s data, a picture emerges of a release whose upper limit is actually determined by people outside the franchise’s traditional reach. The fourfold increase in traffic on the subreddit indicates heightened activity among the core audience. However, the 100,000 Netflix sign-ups and the record-high reactivation rate tell a different story. They suggest that people who don’t regularly follow gaming media suddenly paid to watch the trailer six hours early.

Source: WCCFTech, Gamesindustry