TECH NEWS: For as long as two more years, memory could gradually become unaffordable…
Memory prices are expected to continue rising throughout the coming quarters of 2026, as the market remains affected by a persistent shortage. This ongoing supply problem is pushing prices higher across the technology industry. Since the three major DRAM manufacturers, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, have not offered a positive outlook, while China’s CXMT has not become the industry savior many had hoped for, analysts expect sharp increases in the quarters ahead.
According to a Jefferies Equity Research report, memory prices are expected to rise by 40-50 percent in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the current quarter. Following that, the market should prepare for another 30-40 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2026. Prices are then forecast to rise by a further 40-45 percent in 2027 compared with the previous year, with the first meaningful relief not expected until 2028.
Average selling prices could finally decline then, as roughly 15-20 percent of new capacity is expected to come online. However, that additional supply may not be as significant as previously hoped, because demand for AI and computing power continues to grow rapidly.
At present, around 50 percent of total capacity is covered by long-term agreements and contracts between memory manufacturers and leading technology companies. Micron has already signed 16 agreements under its Strategic Customer Agreements program. That share could rise to 70 percent, which would leave even less stock available for consumer products such as PCs, laptops, game consoles, and smartphones.
Analysts believe the expected price increases could be even greater than initially anticipated, driven by global supply shortages and transitions between manufacturing technology nodes. The dominance of cloud service providers in long-term agreements is reshaping how supply is allocated, while China’s expansion remains a longer-term factor rather than an immediate concern.
Apple is reportedly exploring the possibility of integrating Chinese memory chips. The company is lobbying for CXMT to be included in its supply chain in order to secure more memory for its products, whose retail prices have also risen sharply. However, the idea that Chinese DRAM and NAND memory will disrupt the market in the short term still appears to be misguided.
Chinese companies sell memory at prices broadly similar to those of their competitors, and their main advantage is available supply, which is primarily directed toward domestic consumption. Chinese products are not expected to pose a major market threat in 2026 or 2027, though that could change in 2028 when CXMT and YMTC enter the next phase of their Epic Expansion initiative.
The accelerated construction of new fabs and production lines could eventually allow China to build sufficient inventory for foreign markets as well. Until then, the memory market is expected to face sustained price increases in both 2026 and 2027 due to global supply shortages, strong AI-driven demand, and limited new capacity. While the additional 15-20 percent supply expected in 2028 may bring some relief, the industry is likely to face high costs through the end of the decade.
