The next generation is unlikely to be refreshed with time – at least that’s what the former Xbox head says.
With this generation, an interim update has emerged for consoles: more power, bigger performance, and 4K support. It is unlikely that we will see machines like the Xbox One X or PS4 Pro in the generation dominated by the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, said former Xbox exec Albert Penello.
Based on his comments on the ResetEra forums, he said the current situation is unlikely to recur in the age of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X. The Xbox One X and PlayStation 4 Pro were essential due to the sudden rise of 4K, as the original models were still calibrated to handle Full HD 1080p. Since the proliferation of 8K displays at a similar rate is highly unrealistic for the next 3 years or even beyond, there will simply be no need for a mid-gen upgrade.
“It may simply be less necessary as well. … I think it’s unlikely we’ll see 8K TV’s go mainstream in the same way we saw 4K go mainstream – we’re more likely to see improvements in NITS (to drive better HDR) or better framerates to support greater than 60fps on TV’s. CPU’s and GPU’s in the next-gen should easily support higher frame rates and wider colors.”
„So the mid-gen upgrades are not only less financially and technically viable, but also likely less necessary to keep up with display technologies.”
So not only would mid-generation upgrades not be financially worthwhile, in fact, they would not be technically feasible, but they would also be unnecessary as no competition is expected on the display front.
In his next post, Albert Penello is already talking about making such buffalo-powerful machines and redesigning them is no longer a fun pastime, and even three years from now, it won’t make the PS5 and XSX redesigns more likely.
„I don’t see a 20 / 24 tflop machine being affordable in a console form factor even in 3 years. The node change from 7nm to 5nm or 3 nm is going to be cost prohibitive and just mathematically unless they hit 3nm you’re only going to see a 30% reduction in size but you’re doubling the tflops so the chip has to grow.”
„Additionally, you can’t really double the GPU without growing CPU and Memory or you run in to other bottlenecks which further adds cost.”
It may be premature to talk about this subject without even the base machines themselves appearing, but it would be difficult to argue with Albert Penello’s claims. At the same time, the technology is constantly evolving, the plans may change, so then who knows what the future holds for our consoles. Only time will tell.
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