The big N hasn’t even fully listed its releases for the next twelve months (we discussed this subject yesterday).
A few days ago, Bloomberg asked Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa about the Switch successor console, which he declined to comment on. It is a change from the past (he usually denied immediately that a new console was in the works). However, the investor Q&A was translated by VGC, where Furukawa admitted that it was important for the company to make a subtle transition from Switch to a new platform…
“Whether we will be able to just as smoothly transition from the Nintendo Switch to the next generation of hardware is a major concern for us. Based on our experiences with the Wii, Nintendo DS, and other hardware, it is apparent that one of the major obstacles is how to transition from one hardware to the next easily. To help alleviate this risk, we’re focusing on building long-term relationships with our customers. While we will continue launching new software on the Nintendo Switch, we will also provide services that also use Nintendo Accounts and other IPs outside of gaming software. We intend for this to help build a lasting impact with our customers,” Furukawa says.
Nintendo’s president added, “We have already announced a portion of our software roadmap releasing up to next spring. Unlike in the past, we continue to have a large variety of games scheduled to be released, even beyond five years of release. The Nintendo Switch has had such a smooth launch, allowing us to focus all of our development resources on a single platform.”
Piers Harding-Rolls, an analyst at Ampere Analysis, told VGC his predictions: “Switch sales, setting aside the unexpectedly strong growth in 2020 due to the pandemic and Animal Crossing release, are following a traditional console lifecycle shape. Even with the release of the OLED model, sales were expected to decline from their peak as the Switch reaches year six of the cycle in 2022 and Nintendo’s latest shipment forecast reflects this.
Nintendo has forecast 21 million Switch shipments from April 2022 to March 2023 fiscal period, down from 23m in FY22. If the next Zelda game releases before the end of March 2023, that could be considered a little conservative. A new Zelda will prompt some existing Switch flagship or Lite owners to upgrade to the OLED version of the console. Even with the release of Breath of the Wild 2 in 2023, Ampere is expecting Switch sales to continue declining year-on-year as it enters the late stages of its lifecycle and a next-gen console is revealed.”
According to the firm, “Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024. By the end of that year, Switch is predicted to have sold through 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.”
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