TECH ANALYSIS – The gaming industry, long dominated by home consoles, PCs, and mobile devices, has seen the rise of a new contender: handheld gaming PCs. Since Valve introduced the Steam Deck in 2022, other companies have joined the trend with alternatives like the ASUS ROG Ally and Lenovo Legion GO. At first glance, these devices seemed like a breakout success, delivering high-end gaming performance on the go. However, a new market forecast suggests that the handheld gaming boom might not be as sustainable as it appears. Analysts predict that by 2025, total sales for handheld gaming devices—including the Steam Deck, Lenovo Legion GO, and ROG Ally—will struggle to surpass 2 million units.

For players, the appeal of handheld PCs like the Steam Deck, ROG Ally, and Lenovo Legion GO is undeniable. The ability to access vast PC libraries, from indie gems to AAA blockbusters like Final Fantasy VII Rebirth and Split Fiction, all in a portable form factor, makes for an enticing experience. But while these devices have earned praise from gamers, how are they performing commercially? New research indicates that, despite their capabilities, they haven’t exactly set the market on fire.

The Steam Deck Reigns Supreme

According to IDC, a research firm that analyzes distribution data (via The Verge), handheld gaming PCs have sold fewer than 6 million units worldwide since the Steam Deck’s debut in 2022. Valve remains the dominant force in this niche, having shipped over 3.7 million units, accounting for more than half of all handheld gaming PCs sold.

As previously reported by 3DJuegos, the Steam Deck commands the majority of this segment, with all competing handhelds—including the ROG Ally, Lenovo Legion GO, and others—failing to break a combined 2 million in sales. While it’s true that the market is still relatively young, expectations for significant growth in the near future are low.

In fact, IDC’s projections paint a concerning picture. The firm estimates that in 2025, total shipments for handheld gaming PCs will remain below 2 million units. While this would be an improvement over 2024’s anticipated 1.4 million sales, it still marks a decline from 2023’s 2.8 million. These figures could prompt companies to reconsider their investment in this market.

Do These Numbers Spell Trouble?

Are these results within acceptable margins? Frank Azor, head of gaming marketing at AMD, offered his perspective in a statement to The Verge: “This market didn’t even exist three years ago. We went from zero to a category selling in the millions.” That’s certainly true, but when compared to previous handheld consoles, these numbers start to look less impressive. Sony’s PlayStation Vita, often labeled a commercial failure, managed between 10-15 million sales—far below the 80-82 million sold by the PSP, but still leagues ahead of current handheld PCs.

So is this a bad sign? It depends on the perspective. Valve is reportedly satisfied with the Steam Deck’s performance. Players love the device, it continues to receive software updates, and discussions about a Steam Deck 2 are already underway. However, it’s important to remember that Valve doesn’t rely on hardware sales—it thrives on revenue from Steam, its digital storefront. The same applies to companies like ASUS and Lenovo, whose primary businesses are in broader PC and hardware markets. By contrast, Sony saw the PS Vita as a failure because PlayStation’s core revenue comes from console and software sales.

A Market Without True Breakthroughs

One thing is clear: in terms of commercial impact, the Steam Deck and its rivals haven’t revolutionized the industry. This could have implications for companies like Microsoft, which has reportedly considered developing its own handheld gaming device. While Xbox executives have expressed interest in the market, the fact that total handheld PC sales have yet to surpass 6 million since 2022 might cause them to rethink their strategy.

Of course, a portable Xbox could fare better if it ever materialized. PlayStation managed to sell 80-82 million PSP units, while the Nintendo Switch has soared past 150 million, cementing itself as one of the most successful consoles of all time. Nintendo is so confident in the hybrid model that it has already confirmed plans for a Nintendo Switch 2. The sheer influence and marketing power of companies like Sony and Nintendo give them an edge over the Steam Deck, ROG Ally, and other handheld PCs. Still, the market’s trajectory in 2025 may ultimately determine whether handheld gaming PCs have a lasting future.

– Gergely Herpai „BadSector”-